Every September, somebody tells me the fall market is going to be "the big one."
Every November, I open the numbers and find out what actually happened.
So here's October 2026 for the Burlington housing market, plus Oakville and Hamilton. The short version: more homes sold than in September, fewer than a year ago, and fewer new listings than either. Burlington held its value better than its neighbours. Oakville did something strange (more on that below).
I'll give you the stats first, then my honest read. Fair warning: it might not match the headlines.
Thinking about selling this winter or spring? What's your home worth right now? Or call/text me at 289-206-6430.
What happened in the Burlington housing market in October 2026?
Burlington's composite benchmark price was $879,800 in October 2026, up 0.3% from October 2025, according to the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® October 2026 release. That's flat. But flat is the headline, because Cornerstone says Burlington was the only one of its major markets that didn't decline year over year.
(Hamilton: down. Cambridge: down. Kitchener-Waterloo: down. Burlington: shrugged.)
Across the wider Hamilton-Burlington-Haldimand-Niagara North market area, Cornerstone reported for October 2026:
709 home sales, up 10.6% from September and down 5.3% from October 2025
1,556 new listings, down 10.3% from September and down 12.6% year over year
An average sale price of $799,762, down 5.0% year over year
4.6 months of supply, down from 4.7 in September
40 days on market, down 4.8% from a year earlier
Verdict: Burlington is holding steady. Not booming, not sliding. Steady.
How did the Oakville housing market do in October 2026?
Oakville is reported by a different board, the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board (OMDREB). Their October 2026 Market Watch says:
Oakville single-family homes
Average sale price: $1,804,567, up 5.8% from October 2025
Sales: 107, down from 158 a year earlier (down 32.3%)
New listings: 314, down 12.3% year over year
Oakville townhouses, condos, co-ops, apartments and linked homes
Average sale price: $804,928, down 4.0% year over year
Sales: 84, down from 106 (down 20.8%)
New listings: 217, down 30.4% year over year
Wait. Detached sales down by a third, and the average price is up?
Yes. And no, that doesn't mean Oakville detached homes are suddenly worth 5.8% more. When only 107 homes sell in a month, a handful of big sales can pull the average up on their own. Averages are moody. Small samples make them moodier.
Verdict: a lot fewer Oakville deals got done, and a small sample can make an average look rosier than the street feels. Don't read it as a raise.
Is the Hamilton housing market going down?
Hamilton's composite benchmark price was $667,500 in October 2026, according to Cornerstone. That's up 0.5% from September and down 4.3% from October 2025.
So: a little firmer month to month, still softer than a year ago. If you've been reading "Hamilton is crashing" or "Hamilton is back," neither one is what the numbers say. It's a slow grind, and conditions vary a lot from one neighbourhood to the next. (If you're coming from Toronto, I wrote about what nobody tells you before you buy in Hamilton.)
Verdict: Hamilton buyers have a bit more room than they did a year ago. Not a fire sale, either.
What does it mean for sellers?
Here's the part I'd tape to the fridge: new listings fell harder than sales did.
In the Hamilton-Burlington market area, new listings were down 12.6% year over year, while sales were down 5.3%. Fewer sellers are testing the market, which means a well-priced home has less competition than it did last fall.
The catch? Buyers have choice and time. With roughly four and a half months of supply, nobody has to panic-buy anything. A home that comes out at the right price, looking its best, still sells. A home priced for the market we all wish we had tends to sit, and then chase the market down.
A question I hear every week is whether to wait for spring. Sometimes that's the right call. Sometimes the quieter months are exactly when a good house stands out. It depends on your street, your home and what you're buying next, which is why I'd rather look at your actual situation than give you a slogan. (If you want to know how I price a home, I explained it in What Is My Home Worth in Burlington?)
Verdict: price it right the first time. The market is rewarding realism, not optimism.
What does it mean for buyers?
Buyers often tell me they feel like they missed the window. October says the window is still open.
More supply than the frenzy years, days on market around 40 across the Hamilton-Burlington area and prices that are flat to softer in most places mean you can usually take your time, ask questions and make sensible conditions part of the conversation. Every deal is different, and a great house in a great pocket can still draw a crowd. But "first showing, no conditions, offer by 7 p.m." is not the default anymore.
If you're weighing Burlington against Oakville, the gap is still real. My honest guide to living in Burlington and my take on whether Oakville is worth the price are good places to start.
Verdict: a good month to be a prepared buyer. Get your financing sorted so you can move when the right one shows up.
The one stat nobody's talking about
Oakville detached homes: 314 new listings, 107 sales.
That's roughly three new listings for every sale in October. Meanwhile, in the townhouse and condo segment, new listings fell 30.4% year over year, much faster than sales (down 20.8%).
What that tells me: Oakville's detached market has plenty to choose from, while the more affordable segment is getting tighter on the supply side. Two very different markets inside one town. If you're shopping (or selling) in Oakville, which one you're in matters more than any city-wide average.
What I'm watching in November
I'm not going to predict prices. Nobody can call it. Not me, not the algorithm, not your brother-in-law.
But I'm watching two things. First, whether new listings keep falling faster than sales. If they do, the balance tilts a little toward sellers heading into winter. Second, whether Burlington keeps outperforming its neighbours, or whether October was a one-month blip.
I could be wrong. I'll tell you next month either way.
FAQ
Are house prices going up in Burlington?
Burlington's composite benchmark price was $879,800 in October 2026, up 0.3% from a year earlier according to Cornerstone. That's essentially flat. Your own home's value depends on its type, condition and street.
Is it a buyer's or a seller's market in Burlington right now?
It's closer to balanced. The Hamilton-Burlington market area had 4.6 months of supply at the end of October 2026, so buyers have choice, but well-priced homes still sell.
Where can I see the official numbers?
Burlington and Hamilton stats come from the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® October 2026 market update. Oakville stats come from OMDREB's local market stats.
Should I wait until spring to sell?
It depends on your home, your street and your next move. Fewer new listings this fall means less competition for a well-priced home. Call or text me and I'll walk you through the trade-offs for your situation.
Your street, not just your city
City-wide numbers are a starting point. What your home would sell for depends on your street, your house and who's shopping right now. You can browse homes and neighbourhoods across Burlington on our site.
Think I'm reading October wrong? Tell me. I'd rather argue about it than guess.
What's your home worth right now? Or call/text me at 289-206-6430.
Nick Daymond is a KW Luxury agent and leads the Daymond Realty Group, a Platinum award-winning team serving Burlington, Oakville and Hamilton.
Sources: Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®, October 2026 market update (published November 2026), based on the ITSO MLS® System; Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board, October 2026 Market Watch. Statistics show trends and are not guaranteed to capture every sale.
